"Forecasting methods" 1. "Trend extrapolation" The method is based on analyzing historical data to identify existing trends that can be continued into the future. For example, if there is an observed growth in nationalist sentiments, the forecast may indicate an increase in their influence in the coming years. 2. "Scenario method" The scenario method involves developing several variants of future event development. Each scenario is assigned probable consequences and key factors that may affect its realization. 3. "Delphi method" This is an expert forecasting method based on collecting opinions from a group of experts on a specific issue. These opinions are analyzed, summarized, and forecasts are formed based on them. 4. SWOT analysis SWOT analysis involves assessing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for a specific political situation or decision. 5. "Game modeling method (game theory)" Based on modeling the behavior of various political actors in conditions of conflict or cooperation. It helps to predict how different participants in the political process may act depending on mutual interests. *Tools for political forecasting 1. "Big Data and analytical platforms" Collection and analysis of large data sets (for example, social media, economic statistics, surveys) allow for more accurate forecasts. -Example tools: Palantir, Tableau. 2. "Machine learning and artificial intelligence" Machine learning algorithms can analyze huge volumes of information and identify hidden patterns that are not always obvious in traditional analysis. 3. "Modeling platforms (for example, AnyLogic or Arena)" Simulation modeling platforms allow for analyzing complex systems and testing various scenarios in a virtual environment.